It Was a Happy July and Mixed Signals Ahead
The Markets
The year-to-date (YTD) combined bond and equity market sell-off for the first six months is a rarity. Historically, negative returns in both stocks and bonds, over six-month periods, has occurred only 4% of the time (observation period: 1926-2022).
That six-month episode is also characterized by larger losses compared to the historical averages: Stocks are down 20% vs. the historical average of 10.3%, and bonds are down 5.8% vs 1.6%. (Source: GS Investment Strategy Group, Datastream.)
Thankfully, July returns were positive, and the markets have moved off their lows. The following recap is as of the end of July.